Greek to adopt and start many measures in October

As has been the case for so many times over the last few years, Greece is going to take centre stage. Indeed, with the upcoming elections, the three-week old ESM economic programme is already at risk of suffering delays.

The most recent opinion polls for the 20 September elections point to a very tight race between Syriza and the main opposition party, New Democracy. One cannot rule out an inconclusive result similar to in 2012, when two elections took place in two months. 

In any case, the caretaker government currently in place does not have the authority to pass any of the bailout-related legislation (pension reform, the €50bn asset fund, product market regulation, fiscal measures, among others). 

"Yet, many of these measures were expected to be adopted by September in order for the first review to start in October, which would have allowed not only the disbursement of the second tranche before end-year but also the beginning of the discussion on debt re-profiling", says Societe Generale. 

As a result, even in the best-case scenario of a stable majority, the first bailout review as well as the discussion on debt re-profiling will likely be postponed from October to the end of the year. Given the IMF repayments of €1.2bn due in December and €450m due in January, the government would again struggle to make ends meet in a similar vein as during last spring.