Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Today is of moderate data risk but high profile event risk. Today's focus is on governor Draghi.
Data released so far -
- Australia - Retail sales picked up in January by 0.4 percent mom compared to previous 0.2 percent. Trade deficit widened in January to 0.98 billion from previous 0.50 billion. Aussie remained grossly unmoved by the decision.
- France - Unemployment rate continues to hover above 10.4 percent.
- Germany - Factory orders deteriorated by 3.9 percent mom after last month's jump by 4.4 percent. Data added up the pressure on Euro.
Upcoming -
- Italy - GDP data for fourth quarter to be released at 9:00 GMT. Expectation is a deterioration of 0.3 percent YoY.
- Greece - Unemployment rate to be released at 10:00 GMT.
- UK - BOE is holding the monetary policy meet. Result to be announced at 12:00 GMT. No change is expected. In such a case may not be market moving as no press conference is scheduled. Nevertheless a change in either direction would be massive and very volatile.
- Euro zone - ECB will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:45 GMT. No change is expected as it already introduced asset purchase programme in last meet. President Draghi will hold press conference at 13:30 GMT. Very vital to understand the details of the purchase.
- India - Today is once again the tentative date of release of India's trade data. Scheduled time 11:30 GMT.
- US - Initial jobless claims data at 13:30 GMT. May not be market moving as focus will be on Draghi but vital would be change in unit labor cost to understand the wage growth. Factory orders data to be released at 15:00 GMT. Important to see how the market is evaluating the data after Draghi press conference.
- Canada - Ivey PMI to be released at 15:00 GMT. Better reading is expected after last month's contraction at 45.9.
