Asian Stocks Slip Amid Fed Caution; Dollar Strengthens

Asian stocks pulled back from their two-and-a-half-year highs on Tuesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggested a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares, excluding Japan, fell 0.13% to 620.05, slightly below Monday’s high of 627.66. The index remains up 17% for the year.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5% in early trading, recovering from a 4.8% drop on Monday. Investors are closely watching the policy impact of Shigeru Ishiba, who was speculated to become Japan’s next prime minister and perceived as hawkish on monetary policy. A weaker yen, which traded at 144.09 per dollar, supported Japanese stocks.

With China's financial markets closed for the rest of the week and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also shut on Tuesday, the rally that boosted Asian markets last week has paused. Chinese equities have surged due to economic stimulus measures, with the CSI300 index climbing 25% since early last week.

“We're in for some choppy trade until U.S. data comes in,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, referencing low trading volume due to China’s market closure.

Fed's Rate-Cut Approach Under Scrutiny

Investors are monitoring the pace of U.S. rate cuts after the Federal Reserve initiated its easing cycle with a 50 basis-point reduction last month. Powell indicated a likely shift to quarter-point cuts, saying, “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”

Following Powell’s comments, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders adjusted their expectations, with a 38% probability of a 50 basis-point cut next month—down from 53% on Friday. Traders now anticipate a total of 70 basis points of easing for the year.

The dollar index strengthened slightly to 100.77, while the euro held steady at $1.11355.

Commodities Stable Amid Middle East Concerns

Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday. The potential for additional supply, combined with slow global demand growth, offset concerns over Middle East tensions possibly disrupting exports. Brent crude futures edged up 0.11% to $71.78 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.07% to $68.22 a barrel.

Spot gold rose 0.11% to $2,637.56 per ounce, nearing the record high of $2,685.42 reached last Thursday. The metal saw a 13% rise from July to September, marking its strongest quarterly performance in over four years.