Hong Kong’s retail sales decline narrows in October, near-term outlook hinges on tourism

Hong Kong’s value of total retail sales came in at HKD 36.1 billion in October, a fall of 2.9 percent year-on-year, according to the provisional estimate released by the Census and Statistics Department.  The September’s value of total retail sales was revised down to a fall of 4 percent year-on-year. For the initial ten months of this year, the provisional estimate of total retail sales fell 8.9 percent year-on-year.

Netting out the impact of price changes in the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales dropped 2.7 percent year-on-year in October. September’s volume of retail sales was revised to a drop of 3.8 percent year-on-year. For the January to October period, the provisional estimate of the total retail sales volume dropped 7.8 percent year-on-year.

Seasonally adjusted, the provisional estimate of the total retail sales value rose 1.9 percent in the three months ending October as compared to the prior three-month period, whereas the volume of retail sales was up 1.5 percent.

A government spokesman indicated that the year-on-year rate of decline in retail sales narrowed further in October. The steady job market and rising consumer incomes also rendered support to local consumer confidence.

“Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for retail sales will still hinge on the performance of inbound tourism as well as the extent to which local consumer sentiment will be affected by the various external uncertainties”, added the spokesman.