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Possibility of a Greek deal is high as Greek enters final stage of coffer crunch as it faces large IMF payment of € 1.9 billion, followed by € 6.7 billion to European Central Bank.
President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel's private meeting with the heads of IMF, ECB and European commission has raised possibility that lenders and bailout monitors are preparing something that might be resolve the crisis. Moreover IMF's presence in the group will help ensure that the deal would be forward looking, not a stop gap.
- Euro is trading strong since mid-last week, as Greek official commented that they would be drafting a deal. Currently at 1.104 against dollar.
Euro is likely to move higher if a deal gets done, however nature of the movement would depend on the exact size and scope of the deal.
All Euro based pares are likely to move up on the announcement, risk is not same if the trade is held for long.
EUR/USD may not be the best pair to trade as Dollar leg has the ability to reverse all the gains if data improves in US or Federal Reserve sound hawkish.
It is better to trade Euro against European pairs, such as CHF, SEK, DKK or CZK. Trades can be taken against Yen, which is likely to lose ground over risk on sentiment.
EUR/CHF has low risk associated with peg gone. It is currently trading at 1.04 and a successful deal might push it towards 1.08 with stop at 1.025.
