Improving EA data unlikely to deter ECB from further easing

Final Euro area October PMIs and German manufacturing data will be watched this week, along with a raft of ECB speakers. EA manufacturing and services PMIs are likely to be confirmed at 52.0 and 54.2, respectively, representing a mild improvement in the composite PMI from September. 

"German factory orders are likely to increase 2.3% m/m in September and German IP should grow 0.9% m/m. The data, however, are unlikely to deter the ECB from easing further at its December meeting, given exceptionally low inflation and a large degree of economic slack", says Barclays. 

Indeed, President Draghi sent a clear message at the November meeting press conference that further easing was imminent and an expansion of the QE programme is likely before year-end, adding further downward pressure to the EUR. 

With such clear communication already in place, this week's raft of ECB speakers, including Draghi three times, is unlikely to deliver a materially different message.