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India's overall business activity saw a slight dip in March as robust manufacturing growth couldn't fully offset a services sector slowdown, according to HSBC’s flash India Composite PMI by S&P Global. The index eased to 58.6 from February’s 58.8, missing expectations of 59.0 in a Reuters poll. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion.
Manufacturing remained a bright spot, with the PMI rising to 57.6 from 56.3, marking over three-and-a-half years of continuous growth. Output hit its highest level since July 2024, driven by strong demand and new orders. However, the services PMI slipped to 57.7 from 59.0, dragging down the composite index.
HSBC’s Chief India Economist, Pranjul Bhandari, highlighted stronger operating conditions in manufacturing, while noting weakened demand in services. Export demand also softened across both sectors, marking the slowest growth in three months, partly due to new global trade tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico have stirred uncertainty, with more levies expected in April. This has impacted India’s business sentiment, which fell to a seven-month low, slowing hiring momentum.
Input costs rose in March, especially for manufacturers, reaching a three-month high. However, companies were cautious about passing on these costs, with overall output prices rising at their slowest pace since February 2022. Margins came under pressure as factory gate price increases failed to match rising costs.
Meanwhile, India’s consumer inflation dropped below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target in February for the first time in six months, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in April.
Despite short-term headwinds, India's manufacturing momentum offers a promising outlook for economic stability.
