Inflation numbers today likely to boost dollar

The FOMC has projected three rate hikes for this year; Fed Chair Janet Yellen kept the doors open to a rate hike in March while speaking at the Senate Banking committee hearing, however, the actual path would depend a lot on inflation figures over the year. Today, at 13:30 GMT, January inflation figures will be released from the US.

Why important?

• Fed’s dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment. However, the Unemployment rate has now reached 4.8`percent in the US, which is considered as very close to long-term unemployment level, consistent with Fed’s dual mandate. That leaves inflation to be the most vital mandate for subsequent hikes.

• As inflation expectations increases, the fed has projected three rate hikes for 2017. Hence, the actual inflation would need to evolve in such manner to warrant hikes. Recently inflation has reached Fed’s 2 percent medium-term

• Moreover, inflation numbers will be key determinant of exchange rate divergence among major economies in the coming months and years.

Past trends –

• After staying below FED’s 2 percent target, headline CPI fell to negative territory in the final quarter of 2014. In January CPI fell by -0.7 percent on monthly basis, mostly due to lower energy prices. Yearly CPI fell by -0.1 percent y/y in January.
• Yearly change in CPI has been minimal since then, growing about 0.04 percent per month.
• Yearly CPI growth was +0.7 percent in December, a first sign of comeback. In Mach 2016 it showed further signs of bounce back, with 0.9 percent y/y. Consumer price index was up 1 percent in June 2016 and 0.8 percent in July on a yearly basis. In August it picked up further to 1.1 percent y/y. It rose again in September by 1.5 percent and by 1.6 percent in October. It rose further to 1.7 percent in November. 2016 ended with 2.1 percent y/y inflation.
• In addition to that, core CPI has been showing remarkable resilience, monthly growth not falling below zero since February 2010. It ended the year with 2.2 percent growth in prices.

Expectation today –

• CPI is expected to grow 0.3 percent m/m and rise by 2.4 percent on yearly basis.
• Core CPI is expected to grow at 2.1 percent on yearly basis.

Impact –

• Further firming up of the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to boost dollar by increasing the odds of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March. The dollar index is currently trading at 101.43, up 0.23 percent so far today.