Iran, the end of the beginning

Iran and the P5+1 have finally come to an accord this past week, ending several years of strict sanctions. 

Iran stands to benefit from good behavior in the first few years. This means the lifting of sanctions and access to over $100B in frozen overseas funds, the chance to sell its stored oil and the ability to access IOC coffers, an estimated $200B is needed to modernize the country's fields and uptick production numbers.

"While domestic opposition in both countries may still kill the deal, the greater risk is that "IAEA chief Yukia Amano could throw a wrench in the works" if he is not satisfied with their progress", says RBC.

Once the initial inflow of cash slows though, some have publically voiced their concern that the hardliners in the Iranian govt. may push to renege on the JCPA agreement and sprint towards a nuke instead. no evidence is seen for this claim as yet.

The impact of the deal is between 375Kb/d and 500Kb/d of increased Iranian crude output due in late q2 2016 alongside several million barrels currently being held in storage.