The Copom minutes will be the most important release in the week ahead. After keeping the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25% and changing the convergence of inflation to the "relevant horizon for monetary policy" instead of the end of 2016, markets will try to get more information regarding the aforementioned "horizon."
It will be a soft commitment as the direction of the economic activity and debt dynamics does not allow them to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. As such, recent developments are supportive to the trade recommendations of being long USDBRL via options and and a NTN-F curve steepener, as some hikes are priced in the months to come and fiscal risk premia high is poised to remain high amid a lack of political certainty.


RBI Clamps Down on Rupee NDF Activity, Banks Face Steeper Losses
Bank of Korea Nominee Shin Hyun-song Signals Possible Rate Hike Amid Middle East Inflation Fears
Citigroup Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast Amid Strong Jobs Data and Inflation Concerns
DOJ Ends Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Boosting Kevin Warsh Confirmation Prospects
Morgan Stanley: Fed Rate Cuts Still on Track Despite Oil-Driven Inflation
Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy Amid Middle East War Inflation Risks
RBNZ Holds Rates at 2.25% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen, Inflation, and Nikkei Hang in Balance
Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further 



