The Copom minutes will be the most important release in the week ahead. After keeping the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25% and changing the convergence of inflation to the "relevant horizon for monetary policy" instead of the end of 2016, markets will try to get more information regarding the aforementioned "horizon."
It will be a soft commitment as the direction of the economic activity and debt dynamics does not allow them to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. As such, recent developments are supportive to the trade recommendations of being long USDBRL via options and and a NTN-F curve steepener, as some hikes are priced in the months to come and fiscal risk premia high is poised to remain high amid a lack of political certainty.


Bank of Japan Signals Rate Flexibility Amid Yen Volatility
Goldman Sachs Delays Bank of England Rate Cut Forecast Amid Middle East Inflation Risks
Bank of Japan Unveils New Inflation Gauge to Support Case for Future Rate Hikes
J.P. Morgan Now Expects Two ECB Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Pressures
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Middle East Conflict Clouds Inflation Outlook
Bank of Japan Officials Signal Continued Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns 



