Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed ahead of the October presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday, reinforcing a tightening race reflected in other recent surveys.
In a potential runoff, Lula received 46% support compared with 44% for Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The two-percentage-point gap is within Datafolha’s margin of error and marks a decline from the president’s advantage in mid-August.
The previous Datafolha survey showed Lula with 47% support against Bolsonaro’s 43%, giving the incumbent a four-point lead. The latest results suggest Bolsonaro has gained ground while Lula’s support has edged lower.
Other recent Brazilian election polls have pointed to a similar trend. Surveys conducted by Quaest and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg have also indicated that Lula’s advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed in recent days, increasing attention on what could become a closely contested presidential race.
Datafolha’s first-round scenario still puts Lula in front. The Brazilian president would receive 38% of the vote, while Flavio Bolsonaro would secure 33%. Augusto Cury ranks third with 8%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado at 4%.
Those figures show relatively little movement from August, when Lula had 39% support and Bolsonaro stood at 33%. However, the tighter hypothetical runoff highlights the potential challenge facing Lula if the contest ultimately comes down to the two leading candidates.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to secure an outright victory. If nobody reaches that threshold, the top two candidates advance to a second-round runoff. Brazil has required a presidential runoff in every election since 2002.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 1 and September 2. The poll carries a margin of error of two percentage points, meaning the latest Lula-Bolsonaro runoff figures indicate an especially competitive race as Brazil’s October election approaches.
