Moody's: Expected gradual economic recovery in Egypt will drive profit growth for insurers

 The Egyptian insurance market should see strong premium and profit growth in the next 12-18 months, aided by the country's gradual economic recovery, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today. 

Moody's report, entitled "Insurance - Egypt; Expected Gradual Economic Recovery Will Drive Premium and Profit Growth for Egyptian Insurers," is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. Please note that this report does not constitute a rating action. 

"The Egyptian insurance market may be small but is one of the fastest growing in the world with plenty of untapped potential," says Mohammed Ali Londe, an Assistant Vice President at Moody's. "Absent any political or economic upheaval, we expect the market to expand in double digit figures, helping to cement improving profitability postrevolution." 

Gradual economic recovery is helping the growth of the insurance sector in Egypt, with Moody's forecasting real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.0% for the June 2016 fiscal year end, and averaging 4%-4.5% per year until 2019 (4.2% in financial year 2015 and 2.2% in 2014), as noted in August 2016. 

In addition, Moody's expects the market to benefit from a number of large scale infrastructure projects -- in mining, oil & gas, power generation and transmission, and housing -- both from providing direct insurance cover and because any resulting job creation will support the expansion of the commercial and personal lines of business. 

Furthermore, proposed draft bills, including one mandating comprehensive health insurance and the draft insurance supervision law and regulations proposed by the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA), will provide a boost for the sector's micro-insurance, medical, takaful (islamic shariah-compliant insurance) and mutual guarantee premiums when enacted, according to the rating agency. 

However, the Egyptian insurance industry still faces various challenges, one of which is high sector concentration. "The top six players in the Egyptian insurance market account for 69% of total premiums written in financial year 2015," explains Mr. Londe. "The rest of the market is fragmented, leading to unfavorable pricing practices and operating performance volatility, especially among the smaller players." 

The Egyptian insurance market is the second largest in North Africa, a region that accounted for roughly 0.2% of global insurance premiums in 2015. As of the end of June 2015, gross premiums written (GPW) in Egypt jumped 12.8% from a year earlier to EGP15.5 billion, according to the latest available data from the EFSA