NBP likely to stay on hold in medium-term, government bonds to suffer on global sell-off

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to stay on hold in the medium-term, but Polish government bond might suffer given the global bond sell-off and high presence of non-resident holdings of Polish treasuries.

The National Bank of Poland on Wednesday matched broad expectations and left its policy unchanged while it evaluated a new forecast. The forecast itself has changed only slightly, enabling the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) to retain its view of the economy, with the current monetary policy settings conducive to sustainable growth and maintaining the (overall) macroeconomic balance. 

Moreover, NBP Governor Glapinski confirmed that neither the new data nor the draft government budget for 2017 had changed his (neutral) view of the Polish economy in any way.

The Governor further added that the MPC believed that the fiscal expansion, through increased child benefits and increased absorption of EU funds would encourage the economy next year, with its parameters to be close to the fairly optimistic results of the NBP’s new forecast in 2017.

"We continue to think the NBP will stay on hold for foreseeable future," KBC Central European Daily commented in its latest research report.