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NZD looks particularly vulnerable to further depreciation

NZD looks particularly vulnerable to further depreciation as it continues to suffer from slowing Chinese growth, a weaker CNY, lower commodity prices and elevated risk aversion. Furthermore, recent Dutch Disease analysis suggests the NZD will likely fall much further than previously forecast. New Zealand has large net foreign debt obligations and has experienced significant deterioration in its manufacturing sector, which is only partially offset by high labour mobility/efficiency. 

"We have lowered our forecast and recommend selling NZDUSD. In the context of falling terms of trade, weakening trading partner growth, slowing domestic growth and extremely low inflation, we forecast further RBNZ easing this year, which is not fully priced by interest rate markets", says Barclays.

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