NZ’s ANZ headline business confidence lifts in May; inflation expectations fall to lowest since early 2017

New Zealand’s ANZ headline business confidence (up 6 to net -32 percent) and firms’ views of their own activity (up 2 to net +9 percent) lifted in May’s ANZ Business Outlook, but other activity indicators were a mixed bag.

Pricing intentions and reported cost pressures lifted a touch, but inflation expectations fell to their lowest level since early 2017 (1.8 percent). Residential construction intentions fell sharply again despite the ruling out of a capital gains tax. Employment intentions in the construction sector also fell sharply, to their lowest level since 2009.

In the May ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence lifted 6 points, with a net 32 percent of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead.

Firms’ expectations for their own activity lifted 2 point to a net 9 percent expecting a lift. Manufacturing is the most optimistic sector; construction is now the least.

Most ANZ Business Outlook activity indicators were little changed in May, at levels consistent with the slower growth the economy is experiencing. The main red flag in the survey is residential building intentions.

These fell sharply yet again, down another 7 points to a net 27 percent expecting lower activity, the weakest since 2009. The signal is no longer isolated to this one data series – employment intentions in the construction sector fell from flat to a net 22 percent of firms intending to cut jobs, ANZ Research reported.