New Zealand bonds close higher after GDP price auction disappoints investors; Q3 GDP likely to drop

New Zealand government bonds closed on the upside Wednesday after the country’s GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) price auction disappointed market participants. Also, investors are expecting a decline in the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, due today at 21:45GMT which weighed on the debt market.  

At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 2.74 percent, the yield on 20-year also slipped 1 basis point to 3.28 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year too ended 1 basis point lower at 1.91 percent.

Overnight the final GlobalDairyTrade auction for 2017 saw a 3.9 percent decline in the overall dairy price index. Whole milk powder prices fell 2.5 percent in stark contrast with dairy futures pricing, which suggested an increase of over 5 percent on the back of a softer outlook for this season’s forecast milk collections.

Further, the country’s current account deficit narrowed slightly to 2.6 percent of GDP in the year to September, reflecting an improvement in exports compared to a year ago. Upward revisions to nominal GDP also contributed to a narrowing of the deficit over the past few years. However, the deficit for the September quarter itself was larger than we expected.

This week’s GDP report is expected to show that economic growth slowed to just 0.4 percent through the September quarter. In part, this slowdown reflects the impact of some temporary factors. Poor weather through the middle part of the year put a dampener on agricultural production, Westpac Research report.

Meanwhile, the NZX 50 index closed 0.68 percent higher at 8,401.20, while at 06:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Strength Index remained highly bullish at -105.67 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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