New Zealand net migration touches fresh record high in November, likely to slowdown in 2017

Net migration in New Zealand touched a fresh record high during the month of November, exceeding what markets had initially anticipated. However, with New Zealand’s growth prospects for 2017 remaining firm, a significant slowdown in the pace of net migration appears to be some way off yet.

Monthly net migration again exceeded expectations in November. A net 6,220 permanent migrants arrived in New Zealand in the month, pushing annual net migration to a new record high of almost 70,400, data released by Statistics New Zealand showed Wednesday.

Arrivals of migrants on student visas have slowed significantly over the course of 2016. That said, on a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, student arrivals have ticked higher over the last couple of months (although November arrivals were almost 25 percent below their late 2011 peak).

Further, arrivals of migrants on work visas continued to track higher (in seasonally adjusted terms) in November. Work visa arrivals (which have accounted for around a third of permanent and long term arrivals over the last year) have risen almost 20 percent since March. Within this category, arrivals from the UK have been accelerating in recent months.

However, the pace of growth in short term visitor arrivals slowed this month but remained at a very high level with November arrivals 11 percent higher than a year ago. While student arrivals remain well off their peaks, this decline has been swamped by a lift in arrivals of those on work visas.

"Our view that net migration will gradually slow from its current record levels continues to be challenged by the monthly data. Ultimately the key catalyst for weaker net migration inflows is likely to be softer labour market conditions in New Zealand relative to the rest of the world (and in particular Australia)," said Anne Boniface, Senior Economist, Westpac.

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