New Zealand’s exports recover in April, but trade accounts likely to fall in next 12 months

New Zealand has recorded a merchandise trade surplus of $292 million for April. It was above expectations and was mostly because of robust export values. The nation recorded a deficit of $163 million in seasonally adjusted terms. It is smaller than the deficit of $483 million recorded in March. Exports values, in seasonally adjusted terms, rose sharply by 23% m/m last month, following certain weakness recorded earlier. In February and March, export values had declined 7.8% and 17.2% m/m respectively.

March’s export values in seasonally adjusted terms were the lowest since December 2009. The subdued figure was due to sharp decline in dairy and meat export volumes. Both the categories rebounded sharply last month, rising 30% m/m and 18% m/m respectively. Export values of crude oil export and mechanical machinery also increased. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s import values in seasonally adjusted terms also grew strongly last month. It rose 12% m/m, following a fall of 6.2% in February and 7.5% in March.

The overall view is that the country’s trade accounts will decline further in the next 12 months, stated ANZ in a research report. NZD commodity export prices continue to decline with oil prices rebounding. This is in line with the forecast of an approximate 10% decline in terms of trade in 2016, added ANZ.