No constructive message from China’s September trade data

China's trade growth bounced back slightly in August from July. However, the rebound is not expected to be sustained. The gauge of export orders in the September PMI report ticked up to 47.9 in September, but this was still the second lowest reading in 31 months. 

Moreover, there were fewer working days in September 2015 compared with the same month in 2014, due to the one-off holiday to celebrate the end of World War II. Therefore, export growth is likely to have remained weak in September, although there might be a boost from consumer electronics. 

At the same time, imports probably slid at a faster pace in September. Apart from fewer working days, deeper import price deflation is likely to have been another driver. The soft August activity data and September PMI reports also suggest any recovery in domestic demand might have been slow.