Norwegian retail sales fall in February, suggests weaker start to private consumption in 2018

Norwegian retail sales dropped in the month of February, indicating a weaker start to this year for private consumption. Retail sales dropped 0.6 percent sequentially, as compared with consensus expectations of 0.7 percent.

The figures released today were weaker than expected even when looking through the volatility in the series. Retail sales had risen robustly in the first half of last year but have moved sideways since then. This is in spite of the solid rebound in the labor market. One might argue that the deceleration in the housing market in 2017 is a reason, noted Nordea Bank in a research report.

However, the wider figures for total consumption rose at a healthy rate in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of last year. If the downturn in the housing market has had some negative effect, it should soon be history. The stock of unsold houses is now dropping in contrast to the situation for most of 2017.

“We expect growth close to ½ percent m/m s.a. in next week’s February housing prices”, stated Nordea Bank.

Sharp rise in food prices seemingly has had robust impact on sales of groceries. Food prices rose on average at about 2 percent on sequential basis in the last two months.

“We certainly do not see food prices increase at the same pace looking forward and hence expect real sales of groceries to do better looking ahead” added Nordea Bank.

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest