OPEC+ Eyes Potential Output Hike Beyond 411,000 bpd in July Meeting

OPEC+ is set to meet online this Saturday at 0900 GMT to decide on July oil output levels, with discussions centered around a potential production hike exceeding the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase seen in May and June. Sources familiar with the talks told Reuters that the group may consider a larger boost to crude supply, though some members are still pushing to maintain the current rate.

Eight key OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have been increasing output faster than planned, despite downward pressure on oil prices. This strategy is partly aimed at disciplining overproducing allies and regaining lost market share.

Kazakhstan’s recent refusal to curb output has fueled internal tensions and could influence a decision for a more aggressive production rise. The country has consistently exceeded its quota, drawing criticism from other members. Analysts say Kazakhstan’s stance may tilt the group toward a higher output increase, though a 411,000 bpd rise remains the most probable outcome.

Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei of the UAE commented earlier this week that OPEC+ is committed to balancing the market, as oil prices remain under pressure. Brent crude recently dipped below $60 per barrel in April, its lowest level in four years, before recovering slightly to just under $63 on Friday.

The current supply increases, which began in April, are part of a phased rollback of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts from eight leading producers. OPEC+—a coalition of OPEC members and allies like Russia—continues to navigate market volatility amid global economic concerns and geopolitical shifts. Official responses from OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and Russia were not provided by the time of publication.