Oil Prices Dip as Supply Concerns Offset Trade War Truce Optimism

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, pulling back from a two-week high as supply concerns overshadowed optimism from a temporary pause in the U.S.-China trade war. Brent crude futures slipped 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.74 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 18 cents, also 0.3%, to $61.77.

Both benchmarks had jumped 1.5% on Monday, their strongest close since April 28, following news that Washington and Beijing agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. The move lifted sentiment across global markets, including Wall Street and commodities like crude.

However, analysts warned the truce offers only short-term relief. ING noted lingering uncertainties about what comes after the 90-day window, adding that these concerns could weigh on oil demand. Tensions persist around structural trade issues and U.S. demands related to the fentanyl crisis.

Adding to the pressure, rising global oil supply is emerging as a key bearish factor. OPEC has increased output by more than expected, with May production likely up by 411,000 barrels per day. ING analysts said that even though demand remains a concern, higher output from OPEC+ could leave the oil market well supplied for the rest of 2025—assuming the group follows through with planned hikes in May and June.

On the inventory side, market expectations were mixed. A Reuters poll suggested U.S. crude stocks may have declined last week, but Macquarie strategist Walt Chancellor projected a rise of 7.6 million barrels.

As markets balance demand risks with mounting supply, oil prices remain volatile despite brief gains driven by trade optimism. Investors are now watching OPEC+ actions and U.S. inventory data closely to gauge the direction of the energy market.