Oil Prices Rebound on Iran Tensions as Supply Risks and U.S. Inventory Data Shape Markets

Oil prices rebounded on Friday after sharp losses a day earlier, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and concerns that potential military action could disrupt global oil supplies. Brent crude futures for March climbed 35 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.41 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 33 cents, or 0.56%, to $59.69 per barrel during early Asian trading hours.

The rebound followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned that the United States has a military “armada” heading toward Iran, raising fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Although Trump expressed hope that force would not be used, his renewed threats against Tehran reignited market anxiety over supply disruptions. A U.S. official confirmed that warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided missile destroyers, are expected to arrive in the region in the coming days.

Iran, the fourth-largest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plays a crucial role in global oil markets and remains a major supplier to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Any disruption to Iranian exports could tighten supply and push crude prices higher, making geopolitical developments a key driver for oil traders.

Despite Friday’s rebound, both Brent and WTI had slumped nearly 2% on Thursday as markets reacted to bearish U.S. inventory data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles increased by 3.6 million barrels in the week ending January 16, significantly higher than the 1.1 million-barrel build forecast by analysts. The rise also exceeded the 3 million-barrel increase reported earlier by the American Petroleum Institute, signaling weaker fuel demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation.

Oil prices are still on track for modest weekly gains of around 0.6%, supported earlier by broader geopolitical uncertainty, including Trump’s controversial comments about Greenland. However, prices softened after he clarified that the U.S., Denmark, and NATO had reached an agreement allowing access to the Arctic island, easing fears of immediate conflict.

The delayed release of U.S. inventory data, due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, added to market volatility, leaving oil prices caught between rising geopolitical risks and weakening demand fundamentals.