Oil Prices Rise as Strait of Hormuz Risks Offset OPEC+ Supply Increase

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as renewed security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz balanced expectations of increased global crude supply following Saudi Arabia’s price cuts for Asian buyers and OPEC+’s latest production hike.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 0.39% to $68.82 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 0.38% to $72.26 per barrel during early Asian trading.

Market sentiment remained supported after a tanker traveling near the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman, was reportedly struck by a projectile, causing a fire but no injuries. The incident highlighted that security risks in one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes remain despite the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Although commercial shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, including vessels linked to Japan, traffic remains below normal levels. Investors are closely watching whether isolated attacks could disrupt Gulf oil exports and keep a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.

At the same time, the broader outlook for oil remains pressured by expectations of stronger supply. Saudi Aramco lowered the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian customers to a discount against the regional benchmark for the first time since 2020. The move reflects increasing competition among producers as Gulf exports recover.

The pricing decision follows OPEC+’s agreement to raise production targets for August, reinforcing expectations that additional barrels will return to the global market in the coming weeks.

Analysts at ANZ noted that refined fuel markets remain tighter than crude markets, supported by healthy refining margins and relatively low fuel inventories. These factors could help limit further declines in oil prices even as crude supply increases. However, the bank expects higher Gulf production and recovering exports to gradually loosen the global crude market over the coming months.

Traders are now awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for updated forecasts on oil production and demand. Market participants will also continue monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which additional OPEC+ supply reaches international markets.