Oil Prices Steady as OPEC+ Keeps Output Hike Modest Amid Supply Concerns

Oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Tuesday after a strong rally in the previous session, as investors evaluated the implications of a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production increase. As of 21:44 ET (01:44 GMT), Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 0.2% to $65.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.2% to $61.80 per barrel. Both benchmarks advanced over 1% on Monday, rebounding from a sharp weekly loss after OPEC+ announced only a modest supply boost, easing fears of a sudden market glut.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, agreed to raise production by about 137,000 barrels per day—continuing the cautious pace set last October. The decision signaled the group’s ongoing focus on price stability rather than market share expansion. Analysts at ING noted that the alliance’s conservative approach reflects expectations of a possible supply surplus later this year and in 2026, as demand growth slows amid economic weakness in China and Europe.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil production could rise by more than 2 million barrels per day next year, driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the United States and Brazil. However, demand is expected to remain subdued, creating the risk of a growing surplus that could weigh on prices in the medium term.

Oil prices also found support from escalating geopolitical tensions. Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks on Russian refineries in Kirishi and Ryazan disrupted fuel processing, tightening Russia’s export capacity and adding upward pressure on crude prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has delayed key economic data releases, clouding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and increasing caution among investors. The resulting uncertainty continues to temper bullish sentiment in oil markets, as concerns mount over broader economic risks.