Trita Parsi, a co-founder and executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, argued Wednesday that U.S. midterm fallout could increase pressure on President Donald Trump to restart the Iran war.
In an analysis published by Responsible Statecraft, Parsi described Republican losses as weakening Trump’s immediate electoral incentive to reach a deal. His argument assumes Democrats will control the House and Senate in January, giving them a stronger position in fights over war spending.
Parsi said high gasoline prices had made the war politically costly before the vote. He expects that pressure to ease now that voting is over, while supporters of renewed military action may urge Trump to act before the next Congress takes office. That is Parsi’s assessment of the political incentives, not a prediction that Trump will restart the war.
The talks in Doha are a nearer test. Parsi argued that if they produce no breakthrough in the next few days, the risk of escalation would rise in the following weeks. He provided no assurance that talks would succeed or that renewed fighting would follow a failure.
A funding fight could follow. Parsi said Democrats could seek to prohibit war spending in legislation needed after current U.S. government funding expires. That prospect would put Congress’s authority over Iran policy at the center of the dispute.
A change in congressional control would not, by itself, settle U.S. policy toward Iran. The next funding deadline Parsi identified is Dec. 11.
