Poland’s consumer price inflation likely to have risen in October

Poland’s consumer price inflation is expected to have continued heading towards zero in October. According to a Societe Generale research note, Polish inflation gauged by consumer price index is likely to have risen to -0.2 percent year-on-year from September’s -0.5 percent.

In sequential terms, consumer prices are expected to have risen by 0.5 percent. This would be consistent with the flash CPI estimates that were released by Poland’s official statistics office. Transport prices and a seasonal rise in clothing, food and footwear prices are expected to possibly driven the rise in consumer price inflation, noted Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, the country’s current account balance is expected to have improved in the month of September. The deficit is likely to have narrowed to around EUR 604 million in September from the deficit of EUR 1,047 million in August, added Societe Generale. There was a considerably growth in export orders in September, rising 20 percent sequentially and 26 percent year-on-year.

This is probably going to help lower the trade deficit to EUR 56 million from August’s EUR 509 million. Poland received EUR 302 million in EU fund current transfers in September, as compared with EUR 465 million in August, mainly because of lower Common Agricultural Policy transfers.

“This puts our primary income deficit estimate at around EUR 1,422m, higher than in August. We also expect to see a surplus of approximately EUR 975m in the services account and a deficit of EUR 62m in the secondary income account”, said Societe Generale.