Polish economy likely to grow strongly in Q1 2019, economy to expand 4.1 pct – KBC Market Research

Polish hard macro data for the month of February this year have been released already. All macro readings – wages, employment and industrial production – have hinted that the biggest regional economy continues to grow at a rapid rate as it looks it has been able to decouple from decelerating neighbouring German and Czech economies.

Yesterday’s release of February wage data indicated that the nominal wage dynamics reached 7.5 percent year-on-year in the private sector, which translates into the strong 6.3 percent year-on-year growth in real terms. Furthermore, the employment growth has come in at 3 percent year-on-year. Hence, it appears the Polish labour market continues to be quite solid and it should underpin consumer spending going forward.

Similarly, the Polish industrial production data also saw a positive picture. In January-February 2019 period, the strong industrial output was up 6.7 percent year-on-year, and even in manufacturing the production has been growing briskly this year.

Overall, the Polish hard data for January and February have indicated towards a solid growth of the economy in the first quarter, noted KBC Market Research in a report.

“Our nowcast indicates the Polish GDP grows by 4.1 yoy in the first quarter”, added KBC Market Research.