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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to remain optimistic in its outlook for the economy, notwithstanding the impact of the higher AUD, at its monetary policy meeting scheduled to be held on August 1.
In an important speech this week, the RBA’s Governor again emphasized the impact that considerations around financial stability are having on monetary policy. In particular, financial stability seems to rule out further rate cuts. This is not necessarily the case, in our view. Importantly the current choice is against the backdrop of an expected improvement in the economy. Should this improvement falter then the trade-offs facing the RBA will change significantly.
Despite marginally softer growth and a higher AUD, the forecast range for core inflation is expected to be unchanged from the May SoMP. This means we expect core inflation to be in the 2–3 percent range from mid-2019, albeit with a point estimate that is very much at the bottom of that range.
"We see the RBA’s growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 being revised down slightly to 2½–3½ percent. The outlook for unemployment remains in a 5–6 percent range out to mid-2019, and then we think the Bank will have it nudging down to 4¾–5¾ percent out to the end of 2019," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.
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