Russian assets seized in Belgium, France - can spread to the rest of the EU and also the US?

Following last year's ruling by an international court over the Yukos affair, requiring the Russian state to pay USD 50bn as compensation, a Belgian court has ruled in favour of the seizure of around EUR 1.65bn of state-owned assets in Belgium. 

This is a highly complex situation that can spread to the rest of the EU and also the US, with two big questions being what happens to Russian state-owned assets that are for example deposited in EU or US banks and what happens to Russian foreign exchange reserves that are held in the form of either gold abroad or in the form of US or other bonds. 

While the USD 50bn would be "manageable" from a state debt point of view (given this is around 3% of GDP), a lot of doubt will continue around the complex legal issues that are bound to drag on for some time, says Commerzbank.

Short-term RUB negative, especially given the continued tension in eastern Ukraine and the continued talk of prolonged EU/US sanctions, although stable oil prices continue to be supportive.