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Russian bonds rally on strong oil prices

The Russian 10-year bonds gained on Tuesday, following strong cues emerging from crude oil prices, pushing the yield of 10-year bonds down 1 bp. The Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was lifted on hopes that key oil producers could agree on a production freeze this Sunday. The benchmark 10-year bonds yield, which is inversely proportional to the price of bonds, fell 0.11 pct to 9.23 pct and 20-year bonds yield dipped 0.84 pct to 9.48 pct at 1246 GMT.

Oil futures recovered from 1-month lows to end the previous session up after the Kuwaiti governor for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nawal Al-Fuzaia, said there were "positive indications an agreement will be reached" on output during a producer meeting scheduled for April 17 in Qatar. The International Brent futures rose 1.40 pct at $43.65 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 0.64 pct to $40.62 by 1250 GMT.

On the other hand, Russia’s GDP dynamics (seasonally adjusted) was flat in February 2016, as compared to 0.1% contraction in January, according to the monthly monitoring published by the Economic Development Ministry.

In addition, the Bank of Russia’s unexpectedly hawkish turn at its last rate meeting and the slump in oil prices are casting a shadow on the Russia long-term debt. Morgan Stanley in its report said that if oil prices continue to weaken, the rate on 10-year notes will climb by 50 basis points.

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