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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has warned of a highly uncertain economic outlook due to rising trade and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need to strengthen UBS oversight. In its 2025 Financial Stability Report, the SNB cited global public debt near historic highs, stretched valuations in residential real estate, U.S. stocks, and corporate bonds as key risk factors that could magnify negative economic shocks.
The SNB noted that while the Swiss banking sector’s profitability improved in 2024—largely driven by UBS—regulatory weaknesses persist. Capital and liquidity buffers remain robust, contributing to financial system resilience, but further regulatory action is needed. The central bank backed recent proposals from the Swiss government aimed at crisis prevention, particularly targeting UBS, now Switzerland’s sole major bank after its 2023 acquisition of Credit Suisse.
Highlighting UBS’s exposure, the SNB stated that its loss potential under stress scenarios remains significant. It also endorsed a key government measure requiring UBS to deduct foreign subsidiary holdings from its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital, calling it the “best solution” from a financial stability perspective.
The report reflects growing concerns about systemic risks in the global financial system and the outsized role of UBS in the Swiss economy. The SNB’s stance signals a push for tighter regulations to mitigate future risks amid uncertain global conditions.
