South Korea’s incoming first-grade class is expected to fall below 300,000 in 2027, renewing concerns over rural school closures and widening differences in education across regions.
A compilation by the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the Korean Educational Development Institute (KEDI) projects the drop. The children entering first grade in 2027 were born in 2020, when South Korea recorded 272,337 births, 10% fewer than in 2019, the Ministry of Data and Statistics said.
The latest completed count was 301,442 first-grade students in 2026. That was the smallest total in the ministry’s data series, which began in 1964. For comparison, the 1968 first-grade cohort numbered 1.05 million, nearly four times the projected 2027 intake.
The forecast shows enrollment continuing to decline through 2030, with annual totals still expected to exceed 200,000. The shrinking school-age population has prompted concern about rural schools closing and education gaps growing between regions.
