Standard Chartered maintains short-term neutral recommendation for CNY
The Chinese authorities will likely put more emphasis on managing the CNY's value on a TWI basis this year than on stabilising the CNY rate versus the USD. The fact that the recent National People's Congress (NPC) was un…
The Chinese authorities will likely put more emphasis on managing the CNY's value on a TWI basis this year than on stabilising the CNY rate versus the USD.
The fact that the recent National People's Congress (NPC) was underway may explain the authorities' desire to maintain tight control of USD-CNY in recent weeks. With the NPC behind us, they may allow the PBoC fix - and spot - to grind higher into midyear.
Standard Chartered notes...
We now forecast the USD-CNY onshore spot rate at 6.34 (end-Q2), 6.27 (endQ3), 6.19 (end-Q4) and 6.17 (end-Q1-2016), with USD-CNH at 6.35, 6.28, 6.19 and 6.17, respectively.
Our forecast revision follows a significant steepening of the respective forward curves, and we maintain a short-term Neutral recommendation for the CNY, alongside an Overweight recommendation in the medium term.
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