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U.S. Labor Market Stays Strong
The U.S. labor market is still very strong, considering the economy is healthy. The NFP report in December 2024 could indicate a better gain than what is expected: 256,000 jobs as against 165,000. Unemployment still sits at 4.2%, meaning that people are being absorbed into the economy without significant numbers losing jobs. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% signifying a rise in pay for the workers.
Services Sector Shows Growth
In another, the ISM Services PMI index was higher at 54.1 than at 51.1 and indicated that the important services sector, representing a significant portion of the economy, was growing. The ADP report further revealed that in December, 164,000 new jobs were created, beating all expectations of 115,000. This means that private-sector employment remains strong.
Declining Unemployment Claims
The initial unemployment claims decreased by 18,000 to 202,000, so fewer people are applying for jobless benefits. This further strengthens the labor market, which is more positive news for the economy.
With solid job creation and stable unemployment, confidence in the U.S. economy is building. As a result, the U.S. dollar will continue to rise versus other currencies. Investors are watching these economic indicators as they impact whether monetary policy must increase the Federal Reserve's interest rates at any given period. Overall, labor market news is good enough to raise the short-term value of the U.S. dollar.
Treasury Yields Surge
US Treasury yields shot sharply last week after the strong labor market data. The 10-year Treasury note yield has risen to nearly 4.77%, its highest level since November 2023, as job reports turned positive. Economists had predicted 155,000 new jobs, but job growth topped this number, making the economy appear even stronger. This increase in yields threatens to raise the specter of inflation and an additional round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. If the economy remains healthy, the 10-year yield may top or exceed 5% very soon.
