Swedish inflation on track, in line with Riksbank’s view

Inflation for October came out very much as expected. The CPI rose by 0.1% on the month, in line with forecasts. CPIF stood at 1.1% y/y, a tad higher than we had expected (1.0%) but in line with consensus and the Riksbank's view.

Notably, CPIF excluding energy decreased to 1.6% y/y from 1.8% in September. This was in line with the call but 0.1% point below the Riksbank's forecast.

The main surprise was food prices that rose somewhat while economists had expected them to edge down. Mortgage rates fell more than what had been expected, which affect the CPI but not the CPIF. Most other components came out in line with what was expected.

"We expect CPIF-inflation to rise the coming months, mainly due to base effects. Our forecast for the remainder of the year is a tad lower than the Riksbank's view. More important for the Riksbank is that the probability for SEK appreciation is looming, not least as we expect the ECB to take more action in early December. Therefore, we stick to our view that the Riksbank will cut rates in December",says Nordea Bank.