Taiwanese foreign trade growth likely to have normalized down in November

Taiwan’s foreign trade growth is likely to have normalized down in November following the surges recorded in October. Export growth in USD terms had accelerated to 9.4 percent year-on-year following a decline of 1.8 percent year-on-year in September. Growth in import rose steeply to 19.5 percent year-on-year in October after rising 0.7 percent year-on-year in September.

Apart from continuing solid demand in semiconductors, the Finance Ministry stated that there were additional working days and delayed shipments from September because of typhoons. The weather was good in November and there are two additional working days. Recovery in export is expected to continue, however at a smaller rate, noted Societe Generale in a research report.

There is a possibility of downward corrections of trade growths. Given a positive base impact in exports and solid negative base impact in imports, growth in import is expected to decline faster than export growth. In the meantime, the trade surplus is likely to have contracted to $2 billion in November, a level less than half of October’s, added Societe Generale.