The Week Ahead 21-27 March 2015: Nordea Research

Nordea Research notes the next week´s key events as follows:

US

We expect CPI headline inflation to remain at -0.1% y/y in February, in line with the consensus forecast. Furthermore second tier data along with several speeches from Fed officials are on the agenda.

Euro area

The PMIs on Tuesday and the Ifo on Wednesday will tell us the gentle pick up in the Euro area economy is still there. Besides the confidence indicators it is a rather quiet week on the continent. On the political front, Greece is not the only hotspot. Regional elections in Andalusia on Sunday (22 March) will show, how strong the support for the newcomer parties Podemos (left-wing) and Ciudadanos (centrist) is. This is one of several test runs ahead of the general election in Q4.

UK

CPI inflation fell to 0.3% y/y in January, from 0.5% y/y in December. The fall was mainly due to falling prices of motor fuels and food. Our forecast is that CPI inflation fell further to 0.0% y/y in February.

China

The HSBC/Markit flash PMI on Tuesday will be the first Chinese data for March where effect from the unusually late Chinese New Year (18 - 24 February) should no longer be in play. Unfortunately, the reading is likely to suggest continued headwinds for the Chinese economy.

Sweden

Retail sales rose by a full 5.1% y/y in January. We see retail sales up by 4.5% y/y which is to some extent in contrast to the consumer confidence which has been just below average in recent months. We expect sentiment to be rather stable in March at 98.

Norway

January retail sales came in on the weak side on -0.7% m/m. For February we expect an increase of 0.6% m/m (s.a). We also get labour market figures this week. We expect the number of unemployed and people on labour market measures to increase by 700 persons in March.