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We believe some of the economic optimism in US may be premature, particularly given the risk of a renewed slide in oil prices over the summer. This, shared with the prospect of a renewed firming in the US economy over the months to come, and is expected to drive USD/CAD to new highs. Especially as we expect, the Fed tightens policy in coming months, the pair has not shown any strength and kept falling over the past month, having established a new highs during recent trading sessions at 1.2835.
The CAD is boosted by the rise in crude oil prices and the recent soft patch of US economic data. In addition, the imperial bank of Canada did not react much and sounded dovish to leave policy rates unchanged at its latest meeting and played the downside risks to growth in coming quarters.
Citing the less encouraging influence on demand for the weaker Canadian dollar, above geopolitical and macroeconomic news it seems the prevailing exchange rates are already factored in.
We target USD trending towards 1.2420 levels to test. Try covering any necked puts at current levels with near month at the money call options.
