The Euro Area's monetary and financial conditions improved noticeably, since October ECB meeting, mostly anticipated by the policy package which is coming up in December, when Draghi and some members warned on the downside risks to EA's growth and inflation. They said they are ready to act to counter this risk.
There are two options considered by ECB, like creating a two-tier system for charging deposits or buying back loans at non-payment risk. The first one seems making sense, given the ECB cut the deposit rate over 10 basis points. There are less possible chances for the second option.
Euro depreciation will be followed by the improvement in the monetary and financial conditions. Euro is down 6.5% against dollar and 4.3% on a trade-weighted basis since October ECB meeting.
Euro depreciation was mainly due to the prospect of diverging monetary policies, along with US central bank being prepared to rise rates in December and the ECB adding to the accomodative policy stance.
"At the next monetary policy meeting on 3 December, we expect a 10bp cut in the depo rate and a time extension of QE, as well as some changes in the parameters of QE, including the removal of the yield floor for government bonds", says Barclays in a research note.


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