China’s AI Manufacturing Boom Masks Weak Consumer Economy, Citi Says 
Japan Inflation Stays Below BOJ Target Despite Rate Hike and Rising Energy Cost Risks 
Dollar Surges After Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential Tightening Ahead 
Japan Signals Readiness to Intervene as USD/JPY Nears 161 Amid Yen Weakness 
US Stock Futures Jump on Reports of Preliminary US-Iran Peace Deal Despite Fed’s Hawkish Outlook 
Yen Near 40-Year Lows Despite BOJ Rate Hike, Markets Brace for Possible Intervention 
Gold Prices Rebound on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Optimism Despite Fed Rate Hike Signals 
German Auto Suppliers Turn Bearish as Investment and Jobs Shift Overseas 
Trump Questions USMCA Renewal as Trade Talks Continue 
Trump Says No Hormuz Strait Tolls During 60-Day Iran Ceasefire 
US Stock Futures Slip After Wall Street Rally Fueled by US-Iran Deal and Chipmaker Surge 
Asian Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Fall and Strong US Dollar Weighs on Markets 
Asian Stocks Rally as Japan and South Korea Reach Record Highs on US-Iran Peace Deal 
Canada Imposes 10% Tariff on Canned Vegetable Imports to Protect Domestic Industry 
German Industry Employment Falls to Lowest Level in a Decade 
Asian Currencies Steady as Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Decision and US-Iran Deal Details 
Oil Prices Steady as U.S.-Iran Truce Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge 
British businesses are most likely to raise employee pay by between 3% and 3.49% this year, according to a new survey, highlighting ongoing concerns for the Bank of England as it works to return inflation to its 2% target. The findings suggest that while inflation pressures have eased compared to last year, wage growth remains slightly higher than some policymakers consider comfortable.
The survey, conducted by Incomes Data Research (IDR), found that 39% of employers are planning pay increases in the 3%–3.49% range. A further 22% expect to offer pay rises of 3.5%–3.99%, while 16% are looking at more modest increases of between 2.5% and 2.99%. The research is based on responses collected in November and December from 121 businesses employing around 2.8 million workers, making it a significant snapshot of UK wage trends.
IDR researcher Zoe Woolacott noted that inflation remains higher than a year ago, which has contributed to upward pressure on wages. UK inflation reached an 18-month high of 3.8% in the third quarter of last year, driven partly by one-off rises in regulated prices and employer levies introduced in April 2025. Since then, inflation has fallen to 3.4%, offering some relief but not yet convincing all policymakers that price stability is secured.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said he expects inflation to move closer to the 2% target by April or May. However, concerns remain among some rate-setters. Megan Greene, who voted against December’s quarter-point interest rate cut, has warned that pay growth significantly above 3% could fuel further inflation, especially given weak productivity growth in the UK.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, official data shows private-sector pay growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.6% in the three months to November, down from 3.9% in October. IDR also reported that 44% of employers plan to offer the same pay rises as last year, while 28% expect to offer more and another 28% anticipate offering less, reflecting continued uncertainty in the UK economic outlook.
