US Federal Reserve is likely to begin its hiking cycle this year, in its December meeting, by rising its near-zero interest rates, as widely anticipated. The likely path of the cycle(not the already priced in first hike) will determine the USD price action.
Fed will be mindful about announcing its future rate hike path, leaving these options open, or leave signals that it would hike in each quarter when there a press meeting, its data-dependent approach is warranted by global uncertainties.
"We anticipate one hike during 2015 and three more (25bp each) in 2016. If we are correct, the USD could under-perform EM currencies as "buy the rumor, sell the fact" price actions occur, but we would not depend on strength in emerging markets, as they continue to face significant headwinds", says Barclays in a research note.
There are risks of China's further deterioration, oil price decline to persist and geo-political tensions to continue, which might hurt the already depressed emerging economies confidence.
