U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment likely to rise in November

The University of Michigan preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for November will be released Friday, 11 November at 10:00EDT (14:00GMT). The final October estimate of consumer sentiment decreased to 87.2, versus the final 91.2 reading seen in September.

The near-term prospects for consumer sentiment remain a virtual wild card though improved conditions seen in recent weeks should provide some support for confidence. Accordingly, anticipating modest upward pressure in the preliminary release, we expect the headline measure will increase to around 88.0.

Alongside the uncertainty among the public over the path of economic growth seen for some time, UMICH consumer sentiment decreased in October (87.2, from 91.2). On balance, alongside the decreased reading in the headline, survey readings show the consumer in a weaker situation (as seen via the economic conditions: 103.2, from 104.2), alongside less support from expectations (76.8, from 82.7). Additionally, inflation expectations saw less overall pressure with no change in the 1-year measure (2.4 percent), alongside a decreased reading seen on the 5-year time horizon (2.4 percent, from 2.6 percent).

Although consumer sentiment continues to rest on tenuous conditions (as seen by the volatility in recent months), we expect recent improvement to be maintained as we move further into 2016 as employment conditions improve.

Nevertheless, consumers continue to look for guidance, with the backdrop fear that the next jobs lost might be their own. Until these fears subside, there is little promise of consistent improvement on the consumption front, despite gains seen in recent months.

At 9:30GMT, the dollar index (DXY) was trading 0.05 percent down at 98.74 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while at 9:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 75.49, slightly bullish (higher than the range of 75 for bullish trend).

Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 stock index rose 0.20 percent to 2,167.48 at the end of the trading session.