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US Election Series: Republican race heading into complexity

Bigger than expected win by Ted Cruz in Tuesday’s primary in Wisconsin has complicated things a bit. Now there exists a much stronger possibility that no one wins the magic number required to secure nominations.

Scorecard so far is, Donald Trump is leading with 740 delegates, followed by TED Cruz with 514 and John Kasich with 143 delegates.

To win Republican nomination a candidate needs to secure 1237 delegates, and after lots of primaries done with there are now 888 delegates up for grab, which clearly means –

  • John Kasich can’t win the nomination, even if he grabs all the candidates, however his stay will only keep complicating the race for the other two and making it difficult.

 

  • Second runner TED Cruz will have to win 714 delegates to secure his nomination, which means 81.4% of rest of the delegates, which at this points doesn’t look that feasible.

 

  • Front runner Donald Trump has it the easiest but he will have to secure 497 more delegates or 56% of the rest available.

At this point it is only fair to conclude that Donald Trump has the biggest possibility to secure nominations.

But it’s important to note that it is still possibility simply because Mr. Trump’s so called charm may be fading.

According to Huffpost Pollster, back in Late February, Mr. Trump was leading Ted Cruz and John Kasich in popularity by 21.3% and 32.4% respectively. But as of latest in April, Trump is leading Cruz by only 13.9% and John Kasich by 24.8%.

We might very well be heading into undecided outcome, where everyone falls short leading to a chaotic Republican national convention mid-July.

 

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