Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
The nominal trade deficit widened to $48.3bn in August, narrower than forecast ($50.0bn) and close to consensus expectations ($48.0bn). The July deficit was little-revised in nominal terms ($41.8bn, initial: $41.9bn) such that the August data represent a $6.5bn widening on the month. Exports were down 2.0% m/m (previous: +0.6%), with a sharp decline in goods exports (-3.2% m/m, previous: 0.8%) partially offset by better services exports (0.6% m/m, previous: 0.2%).
Imports were up 1.2% m/m (previous: -1.0%) with goods imports growing 1.3% m/m and services imports up 0.7% m/m (previously: 0.6%). Within this, nonpetroleum goods imports were up 3.1% m/m, as barrels of crude imported were down 7.3% m/m (previous: +5.9%). After adjusting for price effects, the changes in real goods imports (3.1% m/m, previous: -0.8%) and exports (-1.5% m/m, previous: +1.2%) led the real goods deficit to widen to $63.4bn, from $56.1bn in July.
The real goods deficit ex petroleum widened to $60.4bn from $52.7bn. Relative to last week's advance report on international trade in goods, this morning's official numbers and revisions to July show a bit less growth in real imports and a smaller decline in real exports.
"The data are, in our view, consistent with strong domestic consumption and investment and a softening in international demand. Robust growth in consumer goods and capital goods imports suggests better consumer and business demand, while weaker exports of many categories of manufactured goods indicate slowing growth on the part of many emerging markets", says Barclays.
Economists expect these trends to result in an advance estimate of Q3 GDP that shows strong growth in private consumption and solid fixed business investment, partially offset by a drag from net trade and less inventory stocking.
"The revised data on real goods imports and exports through August suggest a more modest drag from net trade for Q3 (-0.8pp, previous: -1.0pp) than we had previously expected. Elsewhere, detailed commodity-level trade data for August modestly boosted our estimate of equipment investment. On net, our Q3 GDP tracking estimate rose three-tenths to 1.5%", added Barclays.
