BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Hints at Rate Hike as Inflation Pressures Build 
Oil Prices Surge Near $120 as U.S.-Iran Tensions Threaten Global Supply 
Asian Stocks Mixed as BOJ Holds Rates, Oil Prices and Fed Outlook Weigh on Markets 
US Sanctions Target Iran’s Shadow Banking Network and Terror Financing 
China Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecasts in April Amid Weak Domestic Demand 
U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Big Tech Earnings and Fed Decision 
Asian Markets Mixed as Fed Decision, Iran Tensions, and Inflation Data Weigh on Sentiment 
AI Stocks Rally in Asia as Oil Surge and Hawkish Central Banks Shake Global Markets 
Stock Market Update: Fed Holds Rates Steady as Tech Earnings and Geopolitical Tensions Shape Outlook 
Oil Prices Slip Amid UAE’s OPEC Exit and Ongoing Iran Conflict Concerns 
US unemployment rate, currently at 5% is already close to the Fed's estimate of the NAIRU, the level consistent with full employment. However, the broader so-called U-6 underemployment measure is at 9.9% suggests that some spare capacity remains in the labour market.
If the recent pace of labour market improvements is sustained, Nordea Markets expects a U-6 underemployment rate of 9% - consistent with full employment would be reached around mid-2016. Nordea Research expects traditional unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4½% by end-2016 and 4¼% by end-2017.
"We continue to see little scope for a major trend reversal in labour force participation as the negative impact of an ageing population is believed to continue dominating positive cyclical inflows to the labour force. Assuming a roughly flat participation rate, we estimate that the "break-even" rate of payroll growth - the rate needed to keep the unemployment rate unchanged - is about 125k per month. However, in case the downtrend in the labour force participation rate over the past two years is sustained, the "break-even" rate would be as low as 70k," says Nordea Markets in a report.
