US headline CPI to come in at 0% m/m

US inflation numbers should come in at 0% m/m in terms of headline CPI and +0.2% m/m on core for November. Headline CPI is expected to be weighed down by a mix of the drop in gasoline pump prices in the US (-5.4% m/m on average - much more precipitous than in Canada) and natural gas prices (-12.5% m/m in October and -10% m/m in November, with the October number probably mattering more to November CPI due to the lag between wholesale and retail costs). 

These factors will mitigate what will probably be ongoing strength in core CPI as the mix of quickly rising housing costs (~2.5% y/y for the past while) and a rebound in medical care costs after subdued cost level appreciation in that category in recent years. The net should leave core inflation at 2% y/y and headline at 0.4% y/y.