U.S. industrial output likely stalled in February

A tug of war between a weather-induced jump in utilities generation and reduced manufacturing and mining activity probably left the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production gauge 0.1% lower in February, after a modest 0.2% uptick in the previous month. 

Societe Generale notes its expectations as follows:

• Prompted by the truly frigid temperatures experienced during the final two weeks of the month, utilities output likely surged by 3.5%, eclipsing January's 2.3% rise. 
  
  
• Sharp falloffs in coal output and oil and gas extraction are projected to have trimmed mining production by 1.1% in February, following a 1.0% reduction in the prior month.
  
  
• Anticipated contractions in motor vehicle assemblies and other factory output probably pared the manufacturing subindex by 0.3% -- the first pullback since last August. 
  
  
• Our projections, if realized, would place industrial production over the January-February span 1.2% annualized above the October-December average, following a 4.3% fall-quarter advance. 
  
  
• With additions to productive capacity forecasted to have eclipsed output last month, the overall operating rate likely dipped to a three-month low of 79.2%.