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Oil market participants have been focusing on risk supply risk arising from Iranian sanction liftoff, however a greater risk now looms in horizon and that is US export ban liftoff which has been in play since 1970 to protect domestic resources.
- In spite of resistance from Obama administration, a group of senators, both from Republican and Democrat party has introduced legislation this week, which might end decade long oil export ban.
- Possibilities are high that the bill will find necessary support due to its bi partisan introduction.
- The bill comes with trigger that might prevent exports when prices increase domestically or economy faces an adverse condition.
Lifting the crude oil ban would have significant impact on the market.
- US has nearly 450 million barrels of crude oil, however US exports would rise gradually even if the ban is lifted. Nevertheless it would exert downside pressure on crude prices.
- Production might pick up in the US significantly, over the coming years to capture greater share of the market. US crude is most likely to target Europe, traditional playground of Russia. This could lead worsening of Geo-political tensions.
As of now many democrats remain opposed to the bill making it difficult to pin point any possible date of lift off, however it might come sooner than expected.
