U.S. real GDP likely grew strongly in Q4 2019

The U.S. fourth quarter advance growth data is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the real GDP is likely to have grown strongly by 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, beneath the headline, domestic demand was looking slightly weak to end the year. A strong rise is expected in residential investment, but a fall in business fixed investment and some slowing in consumption, which has shown resilience so far.

“We expect headline GDP will be boosted by a tariff-related plunge in imports. This looks to be only be partially offset by a drawdown in inventories. Core inflation likely remained tame. For 2019 as a whole, we estimate real GDP rose by 2.3 percent (calendar-average basis), down from 2.9 percent pace in all of 2018”, added TD Economics.